The Institute of Energy Security (IES) has projected fuel prices to increase marginally in second pricing window.
At the current average Crude price of $107.68/B, resulting in $1,138.23/MT of Petrol and $1,159.98/MT for Diesel, coupled with the exchange rate of $1:GHS7.7948 and the govt’s tax rebate of 15 P per Litre still in place, then the Ex-pump prices for fuel are expected to be on the average as follows:
Petrol .. GHS9.990
Diesel..GHS11.350
This brings the average price of Petrol and Diesel to GHS10.670.
Thus, the average price goes up by about 29 P (+2.76%) over the previous window, with Petrol going up by 45 P (+4.74%) and Diesel also being up by 12 P (+1.08%).
LPG is also likely to sell around GHS10.473/kg showing an increase of about 38 P (+3.76%) over the previous window.
Considering no sudden jerks in Crude Oil pricing, that may lead to changes in Petrol, Diesel and LPG Prices on the International market, then the Ex-pump prices are expected to be within the projected figures to within 1%.
The expected increase in fuel prices is primarily due to the fallen Dollar exchange rate and increase in prices of processed fuel ( Petrol, Diesel and LPG) on the international market with increase in Crude price by $3/barrel.
The Institute of Energy Security (IES) also is projecting a 3 to 6 percent increase in the price of petrol and LPG and 2 percent increase in the price of diesel on the local market.
The IES made this projection on the back of the 7.64% rise in Gasoline price, 1.90% rise in Gasoil price, and the 6.05% rise in the price of LPG on the international market, plus the growing pockets of fuel shortages across the country.
he IES noted that, “the upward revision of Gasoline, Gasoil, and LPG prices may be significant, on the back of rising international fuel prices, and the growing pockets of fuel shortages across the country.”
Local Fuel Market Performance
In the first pricing window of May 2022, the price of fuels saw increases on the local market, in response to the rise in prices on the international market. Most Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) increased the price of Gasoil by at least 5% to reach Gh¢11 plus per litre at their pumps.
The IES Marketscan identified GB Oil, Dukes, PetroSankofa, Zen Petroleum, Goodness Oil, and Benab Oil as the OMCs with the least-priced fuel on the local market. The OMCs with the highest-priced fuel on the market were found to be Total, Engen, Semanhyia, Sel, Petrosol, Goil, Shell/Vivo, and Radiance.
Within the window under assessment, the IES Marketscan found pockets of fuel shortages at numerous OMCs retail outlets across the country, with Goil leading the pack. This is the first time Ghanaians may have to hop from one fuel outlet to another looking for Gasoline/Gasoil to buy since June 2015, after the government passed the petroleum price deregulation policy that ensures full cost recovery and efficiency in the downstream petroleum sector.
World Oil Market
On the world market, the IES states that international Benchmark Brent price stayed beyond the $100 per barrel mark in this window. The lowest prices were recorded on May 10 at $102.46 per barrel. The price averaged $107.63 per barrel, representing a 0.77% increase over the previous window’s average price of $106.81 per barrel.
Over the past two weeks, oil stocks were reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) as falling, as Wall Street reacted to persistently high inflation, which is expected to result in additional Federal Reserve policy tightening due in part to a larger market selloff.
