Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Treading water on a plateau of illness

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Well, Georgia is open and cases are rising (Georgia verifies 1K new COVID-19 cases in 24 hours, AJC). Fingers crossed that they don’t pay too high a price for their idiot governor.

Robert Alexander, David B. Cohen and Lauren Copeland/USA Today:

Ohio isn’t off the table. It’s still a battleground and that’s bad news for Trump.

Republicans were premature to count Ohio as safe for Trump. His struggles there don’t bode well for winning industrial swing states and a second term.

In the Great Lakes Poll of Ohio in March, Trump led Joe Biden 47% to 43%. But a month later, he trails the former vice president 45% to 44%. Support for Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has dropped from 58% to 50%, and his favorability rating has dropped from 47% to 43%. Trump’s weakness in the Buckeye State is significant as many have considered Ohio safe territory for Trump in 2020.

WaPo:

Why dangerous conspiracy theories about the virus spread so fast — and how they can be stopped

The pandemic has also sparked a wave of more insidious conspiracy theories, such as the false claim that 5G mobile networks spread and worsen the coronavirus, which has led to dozens of instances of arsonists setting fire to cell towers across Europe.

Misinformation spreads online much like a virus itself. Although various types spread slightly differently, the transmission of the 5G conspiracy theory offers some insight into how false claims grow online.

here is a great site for Rona messaging from FrameWorks Institute:

Topic #1: Deploying a common good frame

Topic #2: Making a powerful case for the role of government

Topic #3: Widening the circle of “we”

Topic #4: The power of how during the pandemic

Topic #5: Nonprofits are essential

Topic #6: Talking about the future

Topic #7: Acting now on behalf of tomorrow

Topic #8: Keeping democratic ideals alive during the pandemic

Perry Bacon Jr/ FiveThirtyEight:

We’ve Got Some Early Trump vs. Biden Swing State Polling

Here’s what we learned looking at every state-level poll conducted in April:

Several polling firms released surveys of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in April. Former President Barack Obama carried all four states in 2012. Trump flipped all four in 2016 (as well as Ohio and Iowa, neither of which has much recent polling.) And Biden appears to lead in all four now. (North Carolina, which has gone Republican in both of the last two cycles, was also polled pretty often in April, with Trump and Biden looking basically tied there.)

This from PRRI is important because it measures something no one else does:

President Trump’s Favorability Ratings Recede from March’s Peak

Largest Declines in Favorability Among Trump Base Groups

Trump’s favorability declined by six percentage points between March and April, from 49% to 43%. The decline was not uniform across demographics, and the largest declines were among some of Trump’s key base groups. These include white Christian groups, specifically white mainline Protestants (-18 percentage points), white Catholics (-12 percentage points), and white evangelical Protestants (-11 percentage points). Large declines are also evident among those living in battleground states (-15 percentage points), those age 65 and over (-14 percentage points), white Americans without a college degree (-12 percentage points), and white women (-9 percentage points).

Seems to me the 65+ vote is gonna be this year’s soccer moms.

Mother Jones:

“The Workers Are Being Sacrificed”: As Cases Mounted, Meatpacker JBS Kept People on Crowded Factory Floors

With coronavirus outbreaks at two-thirds of the company’s beef processing plants, employees are asking, “Why didn’t they help protect us?”

A 33-year-old single mother of four, Rodriguez grew up in Greeley, Colorado, home to JBS’s American headquarters and a massive plant that employs 6,000 workers. Rodriguez has worked there, on and off, alongside her father since she was 18. In the photo on her company ID, she has thick black hair and a wide smile, but her happy expression belies the reality at work. She says JBS is like a bad ex-boyfriend who you keep trying to leave, “but you still go back for some reason.”

AJC:

Internal GOP poll points to troubling signs for Georgia Republicans

An internal poll conducted for the Georgia House GOP Caucus points to troubling signs for Republican leaders: President Donald Trump is deadlocked with Joe Biden and voters aren’t giving the White House, Gov. Brian Kemp or the Legislature high marks for the coronavirus response.

The poll also suggests trouble for U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, showing the former financial executive with 11% of the vote and essentially tied with Democrats Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock. U.S. Rep. Doug Collins leads the November field with 29% of the vote, and outdoes Loeffler among Republicans by a 62-18 margin.

The survey, obtained by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, was conducted by the political polling and research firm Cygnal between April 25-27 and it involved 591 likely voters. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.

Catherine Rampell/WaPo:

We’re all Zelensky now

Do us a favor though: Before we provide lifesaving equipment, praise the president.

Do us a favor though: Before we rescue the U.S. Postal Service, raise postage prices on the president’s perceived political enemies.

Do us a favor though: Before we assist states in fiscal crisis, reopen your economies when we say so. Oh, and hand over your immigrants.

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